Copper Prices Fluctuated Upward Intraday, With BC Copper Most-Traded Contract Closing Higher [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

SMM, January 9: Today, the most-traded BC copper 2502 futures contract opened lower and moved higher, starting at 66,060 yuan/mt and closing with a bullish candlestick. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper contract hit bottom at 65,880 yuan/mt following an increase in short positions after the opening, then rebounded as bulls entered the market. During the morning trading session, the futures fluctuated rangebound within the 66,280-66,540 yuan/mt range. In the afternoon trading session, the most-traded BC copper 2502 contract peaked at 66,600 yuan/mt with an increase in long positions, then dropped back slightly, ultimately closing at 66,520 yuan/mt, up by 440 yuan/mt or 0.67%. The increase was mainly driven by long positions, with open interest reaching 5,566 lots, up by 471 lots compared to the previous trading day, and trading volume reaching 7,414 lots, an increase of 1,511 lots from the previous day.

Macro side, US December ADP employment data recorded 122,000, below the market expectation of 140,000, marking the lowest level since August 2024. Initial jobless claims last week recorded 201,000, the lowest since the week of February 17, 2024. Signs of a cooling labour market may lead the US to keep interest rates unchanged in January despite persistently high inflation. The US dollar index rebounded during the day, limiting the rise in copper prices.

SHFE copper 2502 futures contract closed at 74,920 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2502 contract price of 66,520 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 75,168 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2502 contract and the BC copper 2502 contract was -248 yuan/mt, maintaining a backwardation and narrowing compared to the previous trading day.